Global Warming Increases Hurricanes, Study Claims

In today’s Miami Herald, Martin Merzer writes about a study, soon to published online in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London (whew!). The two researchers who wrote the study, Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder CO, and Peter Webster, of the Georgia Institute of Technology, claim that an observed increase in hurricane activity is tied to global warming (sit down AG, and stop saying I told you so) .

The researchers' study reports an average of four hurricanes and two tropical storms occurred during the period 1900 – 1930. Those numbers increased to eight hurricanes and seven tropical storms for the period 1995 – 2005. Holland and Merzer claim that, contrary to an official NOAA statement in 2005 that the increase could be attributed to “natural variations (not caused by humans)”, the increase is rather due to “anthropogenically induced climate change”. (That means we did it, I think...). They point to increased overall sea surface temperatures (SST) as proof of global warming’s influence. SST is one of the main natural contributors to storm activity, along with wind and ocean currents.

But, of course, as with any discussion of the global warming debate, the study has its detractors. The first criticism of any scientific study is always to challenge the validity of the research techniques used. No different here: other researchers have already chimed in with that charge. “Sloppy research” is what Charles Landsea called the study. He is the National Hurricane Center’s science and operations officer.

Another challenge to the study’s findings, one that sees likely from my amateur viewpoint, is that the reason that the number of observed storms is greater in later years is that we have the technology to observe them better. This makes sense: if we didn’t know the storms were out there, we wouldn’t be able to observe them, would we? Landsea says the seeming doubling of storms is “an artifact of technology, not climate change.”

Who’s right? Who knows? Maybe nobody. Maybe everybody. What struck me most, however, was the last line of Merzer’s story, where he quotes the researchers as predicting “substantially higher tropical cyclone, hurricane, and major hurricane frequency than has hitherto been experienced in the historical record.” Yikes! Batten down the hatches, boys…

Regards,
Stormy