National Hurricane Center News

CNN.com was reporting late last night from Miami of turmoil in the National Hurricane Center, a forecasting unit of the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

It seems that the new director of the Center, Bill Proenza, has had a difficult time succeeding the somewhat legendary Max Mayfield, who retired earlier this year. You may remember Mr. Mayfield from his ubiquitous presence during recent hurricane seasons. At times it seemed he was on every network at once. He gained particular popularity, albeit in hindsight, for having issued warnings about what was possible in New Orleans. When the possible became probable, then inevitable and unavoidable, Max was credited with having been the ‘voice of reason’ in the cacophony of point-and-blame that followed. By most accounts, not only was he eminently credible, he was also quite well liked by staff at the center. Not surprising, really: he comes across as a wizened wizard of weather, whose predictions were relied upon by all.

Not so, apparently, with Mr. Proenza. Barely more than one month into his first hurricane season as director, he already has lost the confidence of a good percentage of his staff, twenty-three of whom signed a petition calling for his replacement “as soon as possible” (see complete CNN story). The signers represent about half of the center’s employees. A closed-door environment, public airing of the center’s internal issues and other statements made by Proenza were among the concerns raised in the petition.

A lot of the turmoil stemmed from Mr. Proenza’s comments in February about one of the center’s aging satellites, called QuikSCAT. In discussing the eventual demise of QuikSCAT, which is already beyond its operating life and powered by a backup source, Proenza stated that, if QuikSCAT was not available, the accuracy of the center’s forecasts could be off by more than 16%. (read more about QuikSCAT)

Wait just a minute, say the staffers in response. QuikSCAT is just one of many tools, and our forecasts will still be reliable. They went on the raise concerns that, if people hear things like the QuikSCAT situation, that somehow that will cause a loss of credibility for the center.

Touchy bunch, if you ask me. Are they really that concerned that the public will somehow begin to discount the validity of the center’s forecasts? My guess it’s more likely a combination of two basic drives in any organization: the every-day grousing about change that we all love to do, rather than deal with the change, and the even deeper need for self worth, for the knowledge that we’re doing something that has value. When we perceive a threat to that image of ourselves, we move to protect our ‘turf’.

Well, to them I say. “Welcome to the human race, weatherpersons. Now do your job, please, because we all are relying on you.” Here’s hoping they get the message.

Regards,
Stormy