Global Warming Increases Hurricanes, Study Claims

In today’s Miami Herald, Martin Merzer writes about a study, soon to published online in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London (whew!). The two researchers who wrote the study, Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder CO, and Peter Webster, of the Georgia Institute of Technology, claim that an observed increase in hurricane activity is tied to global warming (sit down AG, and stop saying I told you so) .

The researchers' study reports an average of four hurricanes and two tropical storms occurred during the period 1900 – 1930. Those numbers increased to eight hurricanes and seven tropical storms for the period 1995 – 2005. Holland and Merzer claim that, contrary to an official NOAA statement in 2005 that the increase could be attributed to “natural variations (not caused by humans)”, the increase is rather due to “anthropogenically induced climate change”. (That means we did it, I think...). They point to increased overall sea surface temperatures (SST) as proof of global warming’s influence. SST is one of the main natural contributors to storm activity, along with wind and ocean currents.

But, of course, as with any discussion of the global warming debate, the study has its detractors. The first criticism of any scientific study is always to challenge the validity of the research techniques used. No different here: other researchers have already chimed in with that charge. “Sloppy research” is what Charles Landsea called the study. He is the National Hurricane Center’s science and operations officer.

Another challenge to the study’s findings, one that sees likely from my amateur viewpoint, is that the reason that the number of observed storms is greater in later years is that we have the technology to observe them better. This makes sense: if we didn’t know the storms were out there, we wouldn’t be able to observe them, would we? Landsea says the seeming doubling of storms is “an artifact of technology, not climate change.”

Who’s right? Who knows? Maybe nobody. Maybe everybody. What struck me most, however, was the last line of Merzer’s story, where he quotes the researchers as predicting “substantially higher tropical cyclone, hurricane, and major hurricane frequency than has hitherto been experienced in the historical record.” Yikes! Batten down the hatches, boys…

Regards,
Stormy

Survey Shows Stubborness of Some

On the front page of Tuesday's edition of the News-Press, Pat Gillespie writes about a Harvard University survey conducted among residents in hurricane prone areas. More than 5,000 adults were polled in seven states, including Florida. All the participants lived within 20 miles of a coastline.

Several questions around hurricane preparedness were asked, but the one that caught my attention (and that of the headline writer for the News-Press) was that, writes Gillespie, "about one in three people...said they would ignore government hurricane evacuation orders..."

This statistic gave me pause. Now, believe me, I am as wary as anyone (more than most, actually) of what my government tells me. You have to question everything these days, given all the ulterior motives floating around out there. But are these folks doubting the veracity of the hurricane experts and their decision to issue an evacuation order? I'm sure they don't take a decision like that lightly. Seems to me that when you're told to get, you better get!!

Gerald Campbell, the chief of planning for Lee County Emergency Management, is right when he says that if people choose to ignore such an order, they will be "literally putting their lives at risk". Sounds like a bad choice to me...Campbell goes on to say that when people don't leave when told to do so, they are "gambling with their lives".

Two basic rules of gambling are that you should always know the odds, and you should always be able to handle the stakes if you lose. Seems to me that when a hurricane is headed your way, the stakes are too high and the odds are too long to make that bet.

Regards,
Stormy

Hurricane Activity About to Heat Up?

With us already seven weeks or so into this hurricane season, we haven't had any major storms here in Florida yet. What gives? There's some recent news items about the fact that the season has had a slow start, and how that doesn't really mean anything about how the rest of the season will go.

On the AOL.com homepage last night was a featured story, "Worst of Hurricane Season Still To Come" in which Jim Loney of Reuters reports that, even with our slow start this year, the peak activity is yet to occur. September 10 is the historical peak, with increased activity expected from August 20 through October 14, and according to experts, writes Loney, this year is still expected to be busy.

Some hurricane predictors are backing off a little from their forecasts, but not by much. As Loney's article points out, WSI Corp, a Massachusetts-based provider of weather-driven business solutions, has adjusted their predicted number of storms, from 15 to 14, and the number of predicted hurricanes from 8 to 6, with 3 being Category 3 or higher. They cite a couple of reasons: the Gulf waters are still "relatively cool" and the "lack of an El Nino event". It's interesting to note that WSI's report also predicts a slightly reduced threat to the western Gulf, and an increase in the threat to the eastern Gulf and (yikes) Florida.

So, in the immortal words of Han Solo: "Don't get cocky, kid". Just because we've caught somewhat of a break so far, that is no reason to think that preparation is still not needed. Get ready, folks, cause 'there's squalls out on the Gulf stream...big storm's comin' soon'...(thanks for the tip,JB)...

Regards,
Stormy

Non-Floridians need a plan, too...

A big stormy salute goes out blogger 'Chris' who, in a comment on the post 'Get a Plan, Man' mentions that if you live in a hurricane zone outside of Florida, there's a website that'll help you plan ahead. One Storm.org lets you generate a free hurricane preparedness plan from their site. It helps you document your household members and their needs, as well as develop a plan for staying or going, so both options are covered. Check it out, and thanks again to Chris...

Regards,
Storny

Get A Plan, Man!!

For those of us (and I'm sure there are many)who have still not gotten prepared for the hurricane season, we're running out of excuses. No, wait, we're OUT of excuses.

The reason I say that is because there are SO MANY resources available to help get yourself ready. As another example, the Florida Division of Emergency Management (FEMA) has put together a method to generate a Family (or Business) Disaster Plan.

Through its 'Get A Plan' website, FEMA lets you calculate just how much supplies are recommended for your family, what you should have in your disaster kit, local evacuation routes, and other related information. All you have to do is go to their website and answer a few questions about where you're located and the size of your household. Based on your answers, you get a printable plan, specific to your circumstances. In addition to listing all your survival requirements, checklists are provided for both before and after the storm, to help you make sure you've covered everything.

With tools like these available, from many different sources, there really is no GOOD reason why anyone who lives in a hurricane zone shuould be caught unprepared when the next hurricane strikes. What are you waiting for? Get ready!!!

Regards,
Stormy

Preparation Guide from FLDFS

Again on the subject of preparedness: Florida's Dept of Financial Services (FLDFS) has developed a 24-page "Hurricane Toolkit" that lists the many resources available to you for help with dealing with hurricanes. It also helps you to organize all of your financial information in one place. A handy thing to have, just in case.

Here's a link to the toolkit if you want to check it out: FLDFS Toolkit Be advised: it'll take a few minutes to download (6.5 MB file), but it's worth the wait.

Regards,
Stormy

My Safe Florida Home

On the subject of protection from hurricane damage, one of the main obstacles for many homeowners is cost. For whatever reason, some folks have great difficulty in budgeting the funds to protect their home. They are usually the ones you see on TV who scramble at the last minute to get to HomeDepot and hope there's plywood left. Sure, they'll tell you (and, maybe the local TV reporter on the scene) that they understand it makes so much more sense, economically and emotionally, to be prepared ahead of time. Sometimes there's a big gap between understanding and acting, I guess.

BUT, there is some hope and help for homeowners. The State of Florida has stepped up with the My Safe Florida Home program, which grants matching reimbursement funds for homeowners who take steps to protect their homes from hurricanes.

There is a $5,000 match limit, and restrictions on the value of homes that qualify, but the State expects that more than 500,000 homeowners will take advantage of the program over the next several years. Check out the link above, or if you prefer, call them (M-F 0800-1700 ET) at 1.866.513.MSFH (6734), but not before you finished reading this post!!

As an inducement to get the process started, My Safe Florida Home is offering FREE WIND INSPECTIONS to those homeowners who qualify for the program. There are several authorized 'Wind Certification Entities' (WCEs) that perform these free inspections. A customized report is prepared for the homeowner that lists areas of the home that need improvement, and suggestions for upgrading the home's preparedness level. There is a pretty well organized guide to the report as well.

This seems like a no-brainer to me. At least the inspection part. Once the homeowner has that report in hand, it's time to contact a hurricane protection expert, such as those at Storm Smart Industries. Storm Smart manufactures and installs a complete line of hurricane protection products. If you prefer to install your own hurricane protection, check out this website: Category5Screens.com. They offer the new hurricane screen protection that can be easily mounted direct to your house.

Well, that's it for now; Stay prepared!!

Regards,
Stormy

National Hurricane Center News

CNN.com was reporting late last night from Miami of turmoil in the National Hurricane Center, a forecasting unit of the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

It seems that the new director of the Center, Bill Proenza, has had a difficult time succeeding the somewhat legendary Max Mayfield, who retired earlier this year. You may remember Mr. Mayfield from his ubiquitous presence during recent hurricane seasons. At times it seemed he was on every network at once. He gained particular popularity, albeit in hindsight, for having issued warnings about what was possible in New Orleans. When the possible became probable, then inevitable and unavoidable, Max was credited with having been the ‘voice of reason’ in the cacophony of point-and-blame that followed. By most accounts, not only was he eminently credible, he was also quite well liked by staff at the center. Not surprising, really: he comes across as a wizened wizard of weather, whose predictions were relied upon by all.

Not so, apparently, with Mr. Proenza. Barely more than one month into his first hurricane season as director, he already has lost the confidence of a good percentage of his staff, twenty-three of whom signed a petition calling for his replacement “as soon as possible” (see complete CNN story). The signers represent about half of the center’s employees. A closed-door environment, public airing of the center’s internal issues and other statements made by Proenza were among the concerns raised in the petition.

A lot of the turmoil stemmed from Mr. Proenza’s comments in February about one of the center’s aging satellites, called QuikSCAT. In discussing the eventual demise of QuikSCAT, which is already beyond its operating life and powered by a backup source, Proenza stated that, if QuikSCAT was not available, the accuracy of the center’s forecasts could be off by more than 16%. (read more about QuikSCAT)

Wait just a minute, say the staffers in response. QuikSCAT is just one of many tools, and our forecasts will still be reliable. They went on the raise concerns that, if people hear things like the QuikSCAT situation, that somehow that will cause a loss of credibility for the center.

Touchy bunch, if you ask me. Are they really that concerned that the public will somehow begin to discount the validity of the center’s forecasts? My guess it’s more likely a combination of two basic drives in any organization: the every-day grousing about change that we all love to do, rather than deal with the change, and the even deeper need for self worth, for the knowledge that we’re doing something that has value. When we perceive a threat to that image of ourselves, we move to protect our ‘turf’.

Well, to them I say. “Welcome to the human race, weatherpersons. Now do your job, please, because we all are relying on you.” Here’s hoping they get the message.

Regards,
Stormy