Season Ends

In the waning hours of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, a quick review is in order. Looking back, the forecasters were not very accurate with their projections. In May, both the National Hurricane Center and Dr. William Gray of the Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project had estimated above-average activity. Even after a late-season adjustment that lowered those forecasts somewhat, they still called for 13 to 16 named storms. Seven to nine of these were predicted to become hurricanes, and four of those were expected to attain major (Class 3 or greater) status.

Actual numbers were lower. Hurricane Noel, which made landfall in early November, was the last of 14 named storms that occurred this season. Five (Dean, Felix, Humberto, Lorenzo and Noel) became hurricanes, and three of those (Dean, Felix and Noel) were Category 3 or higher. Not a bad record, as to the number of storms, with 14 falling right in the middle of the forecast. The intensity of most of the storms, however were lower than the experts had calculated. Only five hurricanes developed, when seven were forecast. The most intense were the two Category 5 storms, Dean and Felix. These two hurricanes made history by being the first two Category 5 hurricanes to make landfall in the same season. Felix was involved in another historic first, as well. On the day (Sept 4) Felix made landfall on Mexico's eastern coast, Pacific Hurricane Henriette also made landfall, on the west coast of Mexico. No two hurricanes had ever before made landfall on the same day. The season's last hurricane, Noel, was also a major storm, attaining Category 4 status and flooding vast areas of the Caribbean. Experts had forecast at least four intense hurricanes.

If you'd like to see official reports on the 2007 season, CSU's report reviewing the predictions of the season is published on the web. Go to CSU's website to see this and other reports. The CSU forecasters are pretty straightforward in trying to explain why the season did not develop as their models had suggested. Pretty detailed reading, but the crux of it seems to be that they really don't know for sure! They even present a rather humorous quote about it being easier to analyze meteorological history than it is to predict it!

NOAA also has posted a comprehensive review of the hurricane season. Although it does not go into explanations as to the forecasts, it is still a pretty good rundown of the season. You can read the NOAA report on their website.

As might be expected, the various media are sticking it to the forecasters. One of my main sources, Martin Merzer of the Miami Herald, treats them fairly kindly in his end of season review, even telling of the forecasters' concerns over their forecasting errors may lead people to discount future predictions as not reliable. The fear is that this may cause public safety issues in the event of an approaching hurricane.

CNN hits a little harder in their review, although the piece backs off a little and ends up being a season recap, without following up on their headline tease about the predictors.

Definitely the strangest attack on the experts' forecasts is by one Harris Rosen, the hotel tycoon out of central Florida. Mr Rosen, as recounted in a story by Orlando Local 6 News, claims billions of dollars have been lost due to lower tourism blamed on the forecasts. He evidently is contemplating a lawsuit against Dr Gray of CSU. Okay...

So, folks, that looks like it for the Eye for awhile...we'll be back occasionally through the coming months, and on into next hurricane season with another series of episodes...please look in on us if you can...thanks...

Best regards
Stormy